Saturday, October 27, 2012

Oh Canadian Banks

Canadian banks are in the news again...

Royal Bank subpoenaed in LIBOR probe
Six Canadian banks on review for Moody’s downgrade
Canadian banks snapping up consumer loans

The last entry there is by far the most interesting, when placed in context with the other two:
So to keep their loan books getting fatter, the banks are essentially buying loans made by other companies — or at least, that’s one way to look at the Ally and Target deals.
Can we please please please dispense with the myth that our economy is somehow superior to the other western nations? That somehow we're more stable? in a better position? Is our economic self-congratulating feedback loop not apparent yet?

For the last four years Europe has continued to worsen and yet rosy forecasts have been given by our leaders as though Europe will just magically get better. When those forecasts don't work out? Well, it's the "global economy's fault". They've been predicting great growth for years and it's never materialized and somehow that's the "global economy's fault" or "Europe's fault".

Now, I'm no expert, but it seems to me it's a lot easier to design policy around factual forecasts than it is to design policy around forecasts that are often proved to be completely wrong.

This overly rosy forecasting habit is prevalent everywhere, recently Zero Hedge caught a QA with the IMF's Lagarde in which she was directly confronted on the IMF's complete lack of ability to forecast upcoming economic conditions under their own policies. The short video presented in that link is quite humorous, you should really check it out.

So what ever happened to our "strong, stable, banking sector"? It never really existed it just wasn't our turn yet. A strong stable banking sector would see the problems in Europe coming a mile away and what's more, a strong stable banking system would have nothing to fear of Canadians being aware of a global depression. It's a confidence game and strong, stable, banking systems have no need for that.

Oh Canada Movie

Have a good weekend everyone.

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Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for eQube gaming systems.

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.

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